Obiettivi al 2035
Solid earnings profile
EBITDA
€B
The Strategic Plan Update 2024-2035, leveraging on a solid base in 2023 with an ordinary EBITDA of 1.9 billion euros, sees the Group's growth consolidating in 2024 with an expected EBITDA of 2.3 billion euros. The expected EBITDA is 2.4 billion euros in 2027, 2.6 billion euros in 2030, and 3.3 billion euros in 2035.
Excluding the scenario effect recorded in 2023 and 2024, respectively of 0.2 billion euros and 0.3 billion euros, the CAGR for 2023-27 is 8%, and for 2023-35 it is 6%.
3.3 €B @2035
March '24 Plan
| 2027 | 2030 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | 2.6 | >3.2 |
Note
(1) CAGR calculated from 2023 net of scenario effect
Ordinary Net Income
€B
The Ordinary Net Income is expected at 0.8 billion euros in 2024 (0.6 billion excluding the scenario effect), 0.7 billion in 2027, and 0.8 billion in 2030, while it is expected to exceed 1 billion in 2035. The CAGR for 2023-27 - net of the scenario effect - is 12%, while the corresponding value for the period 2023-35 is 7%.
>1 €B @2035
March '24 Plan
| 2027 | 2030 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7 | 0.7 | >1 |
In terms of profitability, the Strategic Plan Update shows an average ROI over the period 2024-35 greater than 9%, an average ROE over the same period of 12%. The expected total shareholder return (TSR) is about 12%.
>9%
Return on Investments2 (ROI)
12%
Return on Equity3 (ROE)
~12%
Total Shareholder Return4 (TSR)
Notes
(2) ROI calculated as EBIT on Net Invested Capital, average 2024F-2035
(3) ROE calculated as Net Income including hybrid coupon / Equity pertaining to the Gruppo, average 2024F-2035
(4) Prospective value calculated assuming unchanged multiples. EPS CAGR ~7% and Dividend Yield ~5% with share price calculated as October 2024 monthly average (2.11 €/share)
Visibility of short-term EBITDA target
The EBITDA growth in the short term is mainly driven by the industrial development of the Energy and Smart Infrastructures segments.
EBITDA1
€B
Notes
(1) Figures do not include Corporate
(2) EBITDA net of scenario effect in 2024
Main drivers 2024-27
| Driver + | Driver - | |
|---|---|---|
|
Energy |
|
|
Waste |
|
|
Smart Infrastructures |
|
Medium-term target confirmed
In the medium-long term, it is driven by the Environment and Smart Infrastructures segments.
EBITDA1
€B
Notes
(1) Figures do not include Corporate
Main drivers 2027-30
| Driver + | Driver - | |
|---|---|---|
|
Energy |
|
|
Waste | |
|
Smart Infrastructures |
Expected evolutions of results for 2025
Based on the development of industrial projects and taking into account the trend of price scenarios and market conditions, the A2A Group is expected to achieve for 2025:
- an EBITDA between 2.17 and 2.20 billion euros
- an Ordinary Net Profit of the Group between 0.68 and 0.70 billion euros
2.16 – 2.20€B
EBITDA
0.68 – 0.70€B
Ordinary Net Income
CAPEX Plan with a front-end profile
CAPEX Plan by nature and period
Most of the investments (about 70%) are dedicated to development, allowing the Group to have flexibility regarding investment strategies and possible reallocation over time. The remaining share (about 30%) is dedicated to maintenance and legal obligations.
2024F
2.81 €B
Note
(1) Including assets from the acquisition of electricity network in Milano and Brescia area
2025-2027
5.2 €B
2028-2030
5.3 €B
2031-2035
9.1 €B
Annual Average
| Plan Update | 1.7 €B | 1.8 €B | 1.8 €B |
| March ’24 Plan | 1.6 €B | 1.7 €B | 1.9 €B |
~75%%
Average CAPEX eligible for EU Taxonomy over the Plan period:
Le nostre Business Unit
EBITDA
€B
The growth of the Energy segment is supported by the commissioning of the new CCGT plant in Monfalcone, the contribution of new renewable capacity, developments in plants aimed at increasing the flexibility of the electricity system, and the progressive growth of the customer base
CAPEX
€B
The investments are about 8.1 billion euros are allocated to the Energy business, of which 4.7 billion is related to the development of new renewable capacity and the creation of storage, 1.5 billion is allocated to flexibility (mainly related to the new CCGT in Monfalcone and the maintenance of existing plants), and 1.9 billion to support customer growth
Note
(1) Including scenario effect of 0.3 €B
EBITDA
€B
The Environment Business Unit is driven by the contribution of the WtE in Trezzo, Crotone, and Corteolona, as well as the development of the bioenergy business, and the construction of several material recovery plants. This dynamic is partly offset by the decline in margins in the collection sector due to competitive dynamics of tenders for the renewal of concessions.
CAPEX
€B
The investments are about 4.4 billion euros are related to the Environment Business Unit, of which 4 billion is related to the Treatment sector and 0.4 billion to the Collection business. Regarding Treatment, the total amount is divided into WTE for 1.8 billion, in Material Recovery and other treatment plants for 1.5 billion, and in Bioenergy and FORSU for 0.7 billion.
EBITDA
€B
In the Smart Infrastructures Business Unit, contributing to the achievement of economic targets are the growth of the electric RAB, the full consolidation of newly acquired assets in the Milan and Brescia areas, growth in the integrated water cycle, the commercial development of district heating, as well as the full deployment of the electric charging station installation plan in the reference areas.
CAPEX
€B
The investments are about 8.5 billion euros are related to the Smart Infrastructures Business Unit, of which 7.0 billion is related to the strengthening of distribution networks (including the acquisition of assets in Milan and Brescia), 0.9 billion in the Heat sector, 0.4 billion for the development of the electric mobility business, and 0.2 billion for the development of Public Lighting and Smart City businesses
Note
(1) Excluding divestments
